September is the month of appointments… and on its calendar, Paris has moved one step ahead of Rome.
Invitations have been prepared for the preparatory meeting ahead of the international conference to support the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces, with Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal among the first to be invited.
Meanwhile, the invitation to Rome Three remains “in print” at the American decision-making center.
But Israel moved ahead of its expected release by booby-trapping the packages.
The Israeli side informed Washington of the failure of the pilot areas plan in southern Lebanon and accused the Lebanese Army of failing to act on coordinates provided by the Israeli military to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure.
The message, attributed to a security source and published by the Israeli website Walla, was accompanied by reports of Israeli dissatisfaction with the Army’s performance.
This Israeli targeting of the military institution intersects with internal whispers circulating behind closed doors about replacing the Army commander.
But according to European sources speaking to Al Jadeed, changing commanders is not a solution. Countries do not replace their officers in the middle of a battle — especially when the demand comes from the country carrying out the aggression.
And if political decisions dictate military decisions, responsibility cannot simply be shifted entirely onto the military institution.
Under this pressure, southern Lebanon now faces another danger: a security vacuum, with the end of UNIFIL’s mission approaching and the possibility of leaving the South without international protection.
On the eve of a closed UN Security Council session, the U.S. State Department sent a clear message by firmly rejecting an extension of the international force’s mandate.
According to diplomatic sources speaking to Al Jadeed, this could place the South before an extremely dangerous phase.
Should the Security Council refuse to extend the mandate of the Blue Helmets, Lebanon may request the formation of a new multinational UN force to implement Resolution 1701.
But the American veto may stand in the way, particularly after the U.S. position pointed to a different reality with the existence of the tripartite framework, which Washington expects to implement successfully in a way that could establish more stable and peaceful relations between Lebanon and Israel.
The framework agreement, however, has effectively been removed from circulation by Israel.
Alongside its failure to comply with its provisions — and reports declaring it “dead” — Israel is preparing for a battle over Ali Al-Taher Hill, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu’s electoral agenda.
For Netanyahu, the hill could become a winning lottery ticket, boosting his chances and reviving his declining popularity in his battle to remain at the head of the government.
Hezbollah, meanwhile, has an opportunity not to hand Netanyahu that advantage — by relying on a decision to transfer the hill to the Lebanese Army, after Lebanon secures American guarantees that Israel will not occupy it.
And until white smoke rises from this settlement, the key to unlocking the deadlock — whether in Lebanon or Iran — may not turn anywhere but in the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation remains stuck between Washington and Tehran.
Pakistani and Qatari efforts are focusing on dialogue and diplomacy as a way out, yet the indicators suggest that Washington is seeking a victory that may be difficult to achieve, while Tehran shows no sign of surrender.
Neither the sweeping anger nor the economic offensive has achieved its objectives or forced Iran to retreat.
And in this period of deadlock, Trump has symbolically redrawn the map once again — after renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, the rope of changing maps, it seems, is still being pulled.