Against a backdrop of escalating tensions, explosions, shelling and destruction, Israel is moving ahead with implementing its field framework. Its terms are warnings, and its approach is negotiation by fire. There appear to be no limits to its attacks, which now extend from state institutions and public-service facilities to hospitals and health centers.
The south remains under fire — from Nabatieh to Arabsalim and Kfar Roummane, from homes to hospitals, and from the streets to the Finance Ministry building — as though the ceasefire agreement has become little more than a piece of paper buried under the rubble. A new course is taking shape, one centered on imposing facts on the ground through fire before the doors to negotiations are even opened.
In Baabda, President Joseph Aoun strongly condemned the attacks, saying they were no longer merely repeated violations of the cessation of hostilities agreement and the framework agreement, but had evolved into a dangerous escalation targeting Lebanese state institutions, public-service facilities and health centers. Aoun held Israel fully responsible and called on the United States and the international community to take urgent action to halt the violations and hold those responsible accountable.
At the same time, he stressed that Lebanon remains committed to its obligations in a manner that safeguards its sovereignty, the stability of its south and the safety of its citizens.
At the Grand Serail, the response was practical. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam moved toward Nabatieh, contacting the city’s religious authority and mayor, stressing that the attacks would not deter the government from supporting the return and resilience of Nabatieh’s residents. He also emphasized the need to secure everything required to ensure the continued operation of public facilities and meet citizens’ needs.
From Baabda and the Grand Serail to Ain al-Tineh, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri described what is happening as crimes amounting to state terrorism. He said Israel had failed to abide by any form of ceasefire and was acting outside established rules, agreements and understandings.
Berri went beyond simply describing the violations. In his political reading, Israel is turning the south, its people and their property into a ballot box stained with blood ahead of the upcoming elections, in a contest in which everyone is competing over who can kill and destroy more.
From here, the Speaker raised an issue that goes beyond the south: considering the south’s cause the cause of all Lebanese, and defending it as defending Lebanon itself.
Three official positions, but one message: the state does not want the attacks to become a fait accompli, its institutions to become open targets, or the future of the south to be imposed through fire.
But on the ground, developments are moving in a different direction. The attacks are expanding, villages are being struck, homes are being destroyed and a security zone is being drawn through fire, while talk continues of redeployment and new realities being established on the ground.
All of this is happening as Beirut prepares its files for the Rome round of talks and awaits the final date to be set.
Diplomatic sources told Al Jadeed that U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa is working to achieve some kind of breakthrough in the negotiating process before the situation enters a deadly state of stalemate, particularly in connection with the Israeli elections and their field requirements.
But the anticipated round is being reshaped by fire before it even reaches the negotiating table.
While Lebanon is moving diplomatically, the situation on the ground is moving in the opposite direction.
Negotiations are being delayed, escalation is accelerating, and facts are being imposed through fire before they are discussed at the table.
If the Rome round is supposed to lead to an end to the attacks and an Israeli withdrawal, will developments on the ground enter the negotiations as a bargaining chip? Or will negotiations reach the south only after the fire has already imposed its terms?
Until another day dawns, Lebanon — particularly its south and its future as a whole — remains suspended between fire and waiting.