A Pause in Positions, but an Escalation on the Ground.
The day after Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s visit to Nabatieh, where he reaffirmed the state’s presence, set a package of projects in motion, and renewed priorities calling for an end to attacks, Israel’s withdrawal, and the return of residents, Israel was quick to respond on the ground — in its own way.
Its airstrikes targeted Nabatieh al-Fawqa, the outskirts of Zawtar al-Sharqieh and Mayfadoun, extending as far as the Marjayoun district and Wadi al-Hujair. Explosions shook parts of the South, from Mansouri to Barashit and the outskirts of Beit Yahoun, causing tremors felt more than 20 kilometers away.
As Lebanon approaches the anticipated October milestones, it finds itself walking a political and diplomatic tightrope alongside the line of fire.
In response to the Israeli escalation, Beirut is opening multiple channels of communication through diplomatic efforts spanning capitals and cities.
According to Al Jadeed, the Tampa, Florida meeting has not yet been officially confirmed. In principle, however, the round is expected to take place between the 20th and 22nd of this month, at the level of military delegations, while political participation remains undecided.
The round is expected to focus on the pilot zones and field-level details.
As for the political track of the negotiations, Ambassador Simon Karam carried it to the Vatican, in a visit requested by the Vatican, where he met Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State.
According to diplomatic sources, the Holy See is interested in the successful implementation of the Framework Agreement. There is also a desire to remain closely informed about developments along the negotiating track, reflecting the Vatican’s longstanding interest in Lebanon and its influence in international forums.
The Vatican is also prepared to act in support of Lebanon’s position and demands, while seeking to keep the Lebanese file on the agenda of concerned countries and international decision-making capitals.
To complete the European diplomatic effort on both fronts of support for the Lebanese file, Ambassador Simon Karam traveled to Paris, where he is expected to hold meetings with parties interested in Lebanese affairs.
All these efforts aim to strengthen Lebanon’s negotiating position and establish a safety net capable of protecting the process from the risks posed by the upcoming milestones.
Along the diplomatic communication channels, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a call with Jordan’s King Abdullah II, with Lebanon featuring on the U.S.-Jordanian agenda — particularly regarding the implementation of the Framework Agreement and de-escalation in the region.
This came alongside Jordan’s reaffirmation of its support for the stability of Lebanon and Syria.
Yet all this diplomatic activity is taking place under an increasingly tense Israeli ceiling.
On October 27, Israelis will head to the polls, while the fronts remain open and the security possibilities have no clear ceiling.
From a battlefield still ablaze on the ground to a hijacked plane in the air, allegedly being used for electoral calculations, Lebanon finds itself caught between negotiations whose dates have yet to mature, the need for U.S. pressure, an unsettled southern front, and approaching Israeli elections.
Lebanon and the region are therefore facing an extremely sensitive equation.
Diplomacy is trying to outrun the fire, while the entire region awaits a series of political milestones — from Israel to the U.S. midterm elections.
And it is around electoral calendars that the clock of war may either be set… or the whistle for settlements may be blown.